Recovery set to continue
Wednesday, 24 February 2010
The uptick in sentiment was most significant within sea freight
The 150 forwarders that responded to the survey were evenly split between those that had seen volumes increase or decrease in the last two months, compared with the previous two – adjusted for seasonality – giving an index reading of 50.
However, transport equity analyst Johannes Møller said the underlying recovery in the freight market was continuing, with the index rising significantly in terms of its indicator for expected future volumes.
That rose from 51 last month to 68 in January, meaning 68% of respondents expected volumes of goods to increase during the next two months, adjusted for seasonal effects.
Mr Møller said: “We believe the main driver of recent movements in the market is that industrial companies held a longer Christmas holiday than normal.”
He said the survey indicated that the current market was experiencing a similar situation to when volumes picked up after the slow summer break last year.
“We keep our view that the market is still in a recovery mode, but the recovery is slow and gradual,” added Mr Møller.
The uptick in sentiment was most significant within sea freight.
Mr Møller said: “This is in line with information we are receiving from industry sources that tell us rates are rising extremely fast, as vessels are fully booked and carriers clearly have the upper hand.
“We believe this is a clear challenge for freight forwarders, who run the risk of being squeezed in this environment of rising rates.”
